Nucor Lifts Hot-Rolled Price Again as Scrap Moves Up
Nucor raised its hot-rolled coil consumer spot price by USD 10 to USD 1,280 per short ton for the week of November 2, extending a run of weekly increases since at least mid-October. It then stopped awarding secondary flat-rolled bids. U.S. HRC futures for December through February settled at or above USD 1,400 per ton, and November ferrous scrap was moving up USD 20–30 per gross ton as the market neared settlement. In China, iron ore held in a narrow range and hot-rolled export deals were reported near USD 500/mt FOB. [1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 11]
Weekly cards
01The week in steel prices
| Price | Prior | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nucor HRC CSP, USD/short ton (Oct 26 → Nov 2) [1] | 1,270 | 1,280 | +10 |
| CSI HRC CSP, USD/short ton (Oct 26 → Nov 2) [1] | 1,340 | 1,350 | +10 |
| U.S. HRC spot range, USD/ton (Nov 6, WSD) [3] | — | 1,310–1,325 | n/a |
| U.S. HRC futures, Dec 2026, USD/ton (Nov 4 settle, per WSD) [3] | — | 1,400 | n/a |
| Scrap, obsolete / prime, USD/gross ton (November) [5] | — | — | +30 / +20 |
CSP = producer-announced price, not a transaction. Scrap changes were reported as the market neared settlement, not final. [1, 3, 5]
02U.S. market news
| Item | Detail | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Nucor secondary flat-rolled [7] | No bids awarded, week of Nov 2 | Reason and duration not given |
| Gerdau SBQ [1] | +USD 60/ton | From Jan 1, 2027 |
| Cleveland-Cliffs–USW [15] | 4-year deals, about 12,000 workers | Ratification pending |
| U.S. raw steel output [17] | 2.053 Mnt · 88.9% utilization | Week ended Oct 31 |
Announcements show company intent; effects depend on market acceptance.
03Raw materials and global
| Market | Value | Basis and date |
|---|---|---|
| Dalian iron ore, Jan 2027 [8, 19] | CNY 672 → 671/t | Closes Oct 30 → Nov 3; 669 settle Nov 5 |
| China HRC export, Q235B 3.5 mm [11] | USD 498/mt FOB | Single deal, Nov 5 |
| China HRC social inventory [12] | 4.74 Mt (−1.93%) | Week to Nov 6 |
| Europe HRC offers [14] | EUR 730–760/t EXW | Unchanged, Nov 5 |
| LME nickel, 3-month [13] | USD 16,375/t (+3.8%) | Close Nov 5 (secondary report) |
Overseas prices and raw-material futures are not U.S. steel selling prices.
1. U.S. hot-rolled coil: weekly increases continue
Nucor · CSI (West Coast)
Four weekly announcements on the same basis (three weekly steps). Producer-announced prices, not transaction prices. [1, 2]
View data
| Week of | Nucor | CSI (West Coast) |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 | 1,240 | 1,305 |
| Oct 19 | 1,255 | 1,320 |
| Oct 26 | 1,270 | 1,340 |
| Nov 2 | 1,280 | 1,350 |
What this shows: Nucor's weekly consumer spot price rose USD 40 per short ton (+3.2%) between the weeks of October 12 and November 2, and CSI's West Coast price rose USD 45 (+3.4%). The steps are small, USD 10–20 a week, but there has been no reversal since mid-October. CSI has stayed USD 65–70 above Nucor throughout, reflecting the separate West Coast market. Both are list prices the mills announce, not prices buyers paid. [1, 2]
| Reference | Date | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nucor HRC CSP [1, 2, 20] | Week of Nov 2 | USD 1,280/short ton (+10) | Producer-announced price |
| CSI HRC CSP (West Coast) [1] | Week of Nov 2 | USD 1,350/short ton (+10) | Producer-announced price |
| U.S. HRC spot (WSD) [3] | Nov 6 | USD 1,310–1,325/ton | Market assessment; high end mostly southern mills |
| Imports, Port of Houston (WSD) [3] | Nov 6 | USD 1,160–1,200/ton DDP | Delivered duty-paid offers |
| U.S. HRC futures, Dec 2026 / Jan 2027 / Feb 2027, as reported by WSD [3] | Nov 4 settle | USD 1,400 / 1,433 / 1,425 per ton | Futures settlements as reported by WSD |
| CME HRC calendar 2027 (background) [4] | Oct 12 close | USD 1,207/short ton | Futures strip, dated before the week |
No prior-week settlement for the same futures contracts was verified, so no weekly futures change is shown. WSD does not define its ton; U.S. convention is the short ton.
What this shows: Market references sit above Nucor's announced price. World Steel Dynamics put U.S. spot at USD 1,310–1,325, and the December HRC futures contract settled at USD 1,400 as reported by WSD, about USD 75–90 above that spot range. January and February settled even higher, so near-dated futures were not discounting a decline. Imports delivered duty-paid to Houston were quoted at USD 1,160–1,200, below domestic spot. Lead times differ by source (3–5 weeks from Nucor; 8–10 weeks 'said to be' in WSD's market report), so they are attributed rather than treated as one number. [1, 3]
2. Supply signals in the U.S. market
| Signal | Date | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Nucor secondary flat-rolled bid list [7] | Nov 2 → Nov 4 | Opened, then no bids awarded; no reason or duration given |
| Gerdau SBQ price [1] | From Jan 1, 2027 | +USD 60/ton (USD 3/cwt) for new orders and shipments |
| AISI raw steel production [17] | Week ended Oct 31 | 2,053,000 net tons; 88.9% capability utilization (all raw steel) |
| Cleveland-Cliffs–USW agreements [15] | Nov 6 | Four years, about 12,000 employees; ratification pending |
What this shows: Taken together, the week's facts point to tighter available supply: higher announced prices, a closed secondary channel and high mill utilization. None of these items states a transaction volume or a price that buyers accepted. [1, 7, 17]
3. Scrap and raw materials
| Input | Period | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. obsolete scrap (shredded, P&S, #1 HMS) [5] | November buy | +30 USD/gross ton | Reported change as market neared settle |
| U.S. prime scrap (busheling) [5] | November buy | +20 USD/gross ton | Reported change as market neared settle |
| U.S. busheling, October average [6] | October 2026 | USD 480/gross ton | Monthly average (last full month) |
| Chicago ferrous scrap, all grades [21] | November (forecast Oct 27) | About +20 USD/gross ton | Dealer forecast while negotiations were under way |
| Dalian iron ore I2701 [8] | Oct 30 → Nov 3 | CNY 672 → 671/t | Futures close, Jan 2027 contract |
| Dalian iron ore, most-traded [19] | Nov 5 | CNY 669/t | Futures settlement |
| PB Fines 62% CFR Qingdao [9] | Oct 30 | USD 90.80/dmt | Prior-week reference assessment |
Scrap is quoted in gross tons and iron ore in CNY/t or USD/dry metric tonne; none are converted.
What this shows: Scrap, the main input for U.S. electric-arc mills, was heading higher for November. Obsolete grades were up about USD 30 per gross ton and prime grades about USD 20, consistent with the increases expected in Fastmarkets' early-November survey. SMU's October busheling average of USD 480/gt is the last full-month level; no absolute November level was published before the cutoff, so none is calculated here. Iron ore moved by only a few yuan, after the SGX contract dipped to its lowest level since September 2024 in late October. BL Duke's late-October forecast of about +USD 20 across Chicago grades was in the same direction. [5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 16, 19, 21]
4. China and Europe
| Market | Date | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| China HRC export, Q235B 3.5 mm, Dec shipment [11] | Nov 5 | USD 498/mt FOB Bayuquan | Single reported deal |
| China HRC export, Q235B 14–30 mm, Jan shipment [11] | Nov 3 | USD 535/mt FOB Tianjin | Single reported deal; different product |
| China HRC social inventory [12] | Week to Nov 6 | 4.736 Mt (−1.93% w/w) | Inventory statistic |
| Europe HRC, Northern [14] | Nov 5 | EUR 740–760/t EXW | Mill offers, unchanged |
| Europe HRC, Southern [14] | Nov 5 | EUR 730–750/t EXW | Mill offers, unchanged |
| World crude steel output [22] | September 2026 | 142.4 Mt (−0.2% y/y) | worldsteel, 70 countries |
| U.S. / EU crude steel output [22] | September 2026 | 7.2 Mt (+4.3% y/y) / 10.1 Mt (−5.0% y/y) | worldsteel estimates |
| Steel demand outlook, China / India [23] | 2026 forecast | −2.0% / +7.9% (India +8.0% in 2027) | worldsteel forecast, Oct 12 |
| ArcelorMittal Q3 2026 [24] | Reported Nov 5 | Net loss USD 391 million; adjusted net income USD 868 million | Loss includes Kryvyi Rih impairment and exceptional items |
The two Chinese deals are different thicknesses and shipment months, so they are not a weekly change.
What this shows: Chinese HRC continues to trade far below U.S. levels. One reported export deal was USD 498 per metric tonne FOB, while U.S. prices are in USD per short ton and before freight and duty, so the two are not directly comparable. Chinese HRC inventories fell slightly and rebar futures dipped below 3,000 points mid-week, a picture of sideways demand. European offers were unchanged while mills sought increases for 2027. worldsteel's September data show U.S. output growing while EU output fell, and its October outlook expects Chinese demand to shrink in 2026. ArcelorMittal's third-quarter loss was driven by impairments tied to idling Kryvyi Rih. No new Section 232, USMCA or EU safeguard action dated within the week was found. [11, 12, 14, 22, 23, 24]
5. Stainless and alloys
| Item | Date | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| LME nickel, 3-month [13] | Nov 5 | USD 16,375/t (+3.8% on the day) | Highest since Sep 25; secondary report |
| November stainless surcharges | — | Not verified | No dated original before the cutoff |
| Nippon Steel hydrogen DRI pilot [18] | Nov 4 | More than 1,000 t of DRI with 100% hydrogen | Pilot result, not commercial capacity |
6. Trade rules in force (background)
| Jurisdiction | Measure | In force since |
|---|---|---|
| United States [27] | Metals tariffs on full customs value; 50% and 25% annex categories with specified exceptions | Apr 6, 2026 |
| European Union [25] | Steel duty-free quota 18.3 Mt/year; 50% out-of-quota duty | Jul 1, 2026 |
| European Union [26] | CBAM definitive regime, covering iron and steel | Jan 1, 2026 |
Background; no new action dated within the week was found.
What this shows: These rules were already in force before this week and frame import pricing, including the Houston import range above. They are background, not new actions, and applicability to a specific shipment depends on product, origin and the exceptions in each measure. [27, 25, 26]
7. Freight
Drewry's World Container Index was USD 4,389 per 40-foot container on November 5, down 1% week on week. It is a container composite; bulk and breakbulk steel freight is not covered by this index. [28]
8. Upcoming market data
| Release | Timing | What it will show |
|---|---|---|
| Nucor weekly HRC consumer spot price [1] | Week of Nov 9 | Whether the weekly increases continue |
| Final November ferrous scrap settlements [5] | Not yet published | Whether the +USD 20–30/gt moves held |
| AISI weekly raw steel production [17] | Week ended Nov 7 | Latest output and utilization |
| Cleveland-Cliffs–USW ratification [15] | No date published | Completion of the labor agreements |
NETSPIRES reading (interpretation, not observed data). The verified facts favor firm U.S. hot-rolled pricing in the near term: mill increases, futures above spot, rising scrap and restricted secondary supply. Cheaper import offers into Houston and soft Chinese and European demand are the main counterweights. No verified evidence covers cold-rolled, coated or stainless selling prices, so this reading applies to hot-rolled only. [1, 3, 5, 7, 11, 14]